Our Philosophy
Boring bets. Better parlays.
C3Parlay doesn't predict highlights. It measures repetition.
What We Do
C3Parlay shows how often player props actually hit, so you can build smarter parlays instead of guessing. We pull real game data from ESPN and calculate hit rates across the last 5 games, last 10 games, and full season.
No predictions. No picks. No opinions. Just math.
C3 Score
Every prop gets a C3 Score - our confidence rating that weighs recent performance, sample size, and value relative to the betting line. Higher scores indicate stronger historical patterns at that specific line.
Injury Intelligence
We monitor injury reports and automatically exclude props for players who are Out, Doubtful, or on IR. When a starter is ruled out, we flag their teammates who may see increased opportunity.
Our Golden Rule
If a stat is driven by volume → it's analyzable.
If a stat is driven by a single event → it's not.
Why Only 4 Prop Types?
TD props are coin flips. "Longest reception" is pure chaos. We track yards and receptions because they're volume stats — predictable enough to analyze, boring enough to bet. That's the point.
Props We Track
Pass Yards
Volume-based. More dropbacks = more yards. Trackable patterns.
Rush Yards
Workload is predictable. More carries = more yards.
Rec Yards
Target share is measurable. Top receivers see consistent volume.
Receptions
Catch rate × targets. Consistent receivers hit consistently.
Sacks
Higher variance, but snap count and pressure rate matter. Main lines only.
Props We Skip
Touchdowns
A player can have 150 yards and 0 TDs. Red zone is chaos.
Longest Rush/Reception/Completion
One big play. Pure variance. Not analyzable.
Interceptions / Tackles
Subjective scoring, stat corrections, too random.
What Makes Us Different
Restraint
We don't show everything. We show what's analyzable.
Transparency
We explain why certain props are excluded.
Math over vibes
Hit rates from real data, not gut feelings.
Boring = profitable
Exciting bets lose. Consistent bets compound.
Data Sources
Prop lines from DraftKings via The Odds API. Hit rates calculated from ESPN game logs. Data refreshed multiple times per week during the season.
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